Point Counterpoint

[Note: This is my first try at cross-posting: this article is appearing simultaneously at A Fistful of Euros, whose readers I cordially welcome to this blog if you find your way here.]

Let's forget about the Pope's retirement, OK? Not that it doesn't have huge implications for the theology of the Church and the role of future tenants of St. Peter's see, but none of that is an electoral matter. And please, let's pay no further attention to the antics of Silvio Berlusconi, that bad little boy who wants all our attention, all the time. Just ignore him. Let's notice instead where the Italian electoral campaign is really happening, where it has always been happening, and where in the aftermath of next Sunday's vote all the political action will be concentrated. Let's look at the wonderful triangulation between Pier Luigi Bersani, Nichi Vendola, and Mario Monti.

For background, recall that Bersani and Vendola both came of age in the old Italian Communist Party, both participated in the Rifondazione movement in the '90s, and both retain a fondness for working people and the venerable culture of the Left that comes with that territory. When Bersani was consolidating his hold on the big-tent Democratic Party a half-decade ago, Vendola still held on to his Left purism, enough so, some say, that he helped bring down Romano Prodi's center-leaning government in 2008. Since then his SEL (Left Ecology Freedom) Party has governed Puglia with a red/green slant, but has embraced as well the business growth and market logic that have made Puglia a rare success story in Italy's Mezzogiorno.

What does any of this have to do with the technocratic Monti, the former EU Commissioner, professor at an elite business school, unelected premier in the 'government of the professors' that made Italy take its austerity medicine for the last year? Well, all parties declare a grudging mutual respect, and indeed Bersani's PD was a solid if reluctant pillar of Monti's reformist government until Berlusconi chose to kick out the props and make it fall. More to the point right now, though Bersani still polls well ahead in the race for the lower house, and thus the premiership, his alliance seems unlikely to pick up enough seats in the regionally skewed Senate to control it. He can't govern without it. SEL's seats won't do it--he'll need the centrist senators controlled by Monti. Which may explain that grudging but persistent respect.

Meanwhile day after day Vendola and Monti go at each other, like rival siblings competing for the attentions of a fond but slightly absent-minded father. Except of course for a few things: Bersani's aloofness is anything but accidental, Monti HATES being bracketed with a leftist politican, and the differences they are flourishing are the essential policy questions that will determine Italy's future. Such as:

• On Monday Monti declared he could sit in the same government with Vendola as long as it was 'reformist'; Vendola quickly noted that for Monti 'reform' means rolling back workers' rights, while for his part those rights are the cornerstone of any reform.
• Vendola has consistently deplored the benefit reductions Monti has imposed at the behest of the ECB, referring yesterday to his austerity measures as the "same old conservative ideology." Bersani meanwhile lamented Monti's "lack of gratitude" for the support his government received from Bersani's Democrats.

And so forth. What is playing out is a classic competition between management strategies, as Vendola advocates for activist stimulus and Monti calls on Italians to tighten their belts for one more round. Bersani meanwhile tries to walk a fine line he calls "austerity with justice," whatever that turns out to mean. But as Hollande waffles along the same line, and Merkel prepares to defend her mercantilist fundamentalism this fall, Italy--for all its woes, still the Eurozone's 3rd biggest economy--will be helping to arbitrate the larger EU's path through this intractable crisis. And it is Vendola and Monti who are waging that struggle day by day.

Sadly, American readers are at risk to miss the whole show. Rachel Donadio, the Times's estimable Rome correspondent, managed to write a whole story about the election last Friday without mentioning Vendola's name. But that's OK--as I noted at the time she wrote a similar article a month ago that lovingly catalogued Berlusconi's clown acts but failed to even mention Bersani, the clear front-runner. With the EU leadership openly campaigning for Monti, along with David Axelrod (hired by Monti's campaign) and maybe President Obama himself (Gianluca Luzi in today's Repubblica calls the President's support for continued reform "a sort of endorsement for Monti"), one might almost suspect an aversion to the ex-Communists of the center-left. But like 'em or not, they are poised to take over Italy's government, though on what terms is precisely the contested terrain of this election.